Happy Holidays!

Ensemble has wrapped up a bona fide tour of fundraising events over the past couple of months. It has been inspiring to see the depth and breadth of work these critical organizations are doing around Seattle. From temporary housing for families in crisis, to feeding kids who otherwise only eat at school, to advocating for minority representation, to keeping the performing arts in our communities, each of these organizations is on the front line of a battle for relevance in the face of diminishing resources. We were humbled to bear witness to their efforts.

In other giving news, we offer our appreciation to those of you who participated in our Front Porch Food Bank event in November. We gathered hundreds of pounds of food from your doorsteps and delivered them directly to five area food banks. From Columbia City to Edmonds, your vulnerable neighbors benefited greatly from your generosity. Thank you, from all of us at Ensemble, for your compassion and for being part of this simple act of kindness.

Lately there's been renewed chatter about 50-year mortgages as a supposed solution to housing affordability. At first glance, the appeal is obvious: a longer term means a lower monthly payment. In a moment when interest rates remain elevated and buyers feel stretched, that promise can sound like relief. But when we step back and examine the math over time, the picture becomes far less compelling for most consumers.

A 50-year mortgage doesn't meaningfully lower the cost of housing. In fact, it does quite the opposite. In our modeling, borrowers with a 6% interest rate and a 50-year mortgage don't begin paying more toward principal than interest until nearly year 40. That tipping point comes at year 18 with a 30-year mortgage at 6%. For anyone who expects to sell, refinance, or move within a typical ownership window, this means carrying a large balance for much longer, with little to show for it beyond having made the payment feel manageable.

More importantly, longer amortization does not translate into stronger financial outcomes at sale. When we compare actual sale proceeds, defined as home value minus remaining loan balance, a traditional 30-year mortgage outperforms a 50-year mortgage every single year until both loans are fully paid off.

The higher monthly payment on a 30-year loan is not lost. It is quietly building equity by reducing long term debt. That equity is what shows up when a home is sold, refinanced, or leveraged for the next chapter. Lower payments can feel easier month to month, but they often leave homeowners with less flexibility and fewer options later.

Extending a mortgage from 30 to 50 years dramatically increases interest costs. In many common scenarios, borrowers pay hundreds of thousands of additional dollars to the bank over the life of the loan in exchange for only a few hundred dollars a month in payment relief.

At Ensemble, we're wary of solutions that treat the symptom rather than the cause. Housing affordability is a real challenge but extending debt across half a century shifts risk onto consumers without addressing supply, pricing, or improving equity growth. For a very narrow set of circumstances, particularly where cash flow is the overriding constraint and long-term ownership is guaranteed, a longer term might be worth exploring.

For most buyers, however, a 50-year mortgage trades short-term comfort for long-term cost in ways that don't align with sustainable wealth-building or financial resilience.

I hope the holiday season has brought you much joy and I look forward to catching up with you in the new year. As always, please don't hesitate to reach out any time for real estate support! - Phillip