Earlier this month, my family and I made it out to a Mariners game—and it was such a treat! Since we don’t get to the ballpark often, we went all in on the game-day experience: popcorn, pretzels, and of course, the famous garlic fries (totally worth the lingering breath!). The kids had a blast, and it was one of those perfect evenings that felt like a true Seattle summer moment.

October is here and along with that come pumpkin patches! Check out the pumpkin patch resource page we put together on our website here, with maps and calendar of events for the most popular ones!

On the real estate front, last week the Federal Reserve  announced a lowering of the target range for the federal funds rate by a 1/4 point. It seems logical that when the Feds cut interest rates, mortgage rates will follow. The reality is more nuanced.

Mortgage rates are shaped primarily by the bond market, especially the 10-year Treasury yield, with an added premium for the unique risks associated with mortgages. What matters most is not the Fed’s short-term rate today, but how investors expect inflation and borrowing costs to evolve over the coming years.

Those expectations are generally priced into the market before the Fed makes an announcement. As a result, mortgage rates may hold steady, or even rise, immediately after a rate cut.

It’s like the stock market, where investors often “buy the rumor, sell the news.” Prices move based on anticipation, and by the time the official announcement comes, the market has already reacted. Mortgage rates work the same way: it’s the outlook that matters more than the headline.

This is why a 30-year mortgage behaves differently than your credit card, an auto loan, or HELOC. Short-term borrowing responds directly to the Fed’s lever. Long-term mortgages are more interested in the forecast: where inflation is headed, how volatile markets feel, and how wide lenders want to set the safety margin between Treasuries and home loans.

It is also worth remembering that rates are effectively the same across lenders. Those “discounted” offers you see often involve purchasing points up front, which makes the headline rate look attractive while the true cost shows up in the APR. If you want to know the true cost, compare APRs, not just base rate.

One last tip: please do not assume that refinancing to a lower rate is the right financial decision. If you have had your loan for several years, another 30-year commitment and resetting your amortization schedule could be costly. Please don’t hesitate to reach out to me or a trusted mortgage originator if you have questions about timing the market for a refi.

The end of the year is approaching fast - let me know if I can help with your real estate needs in any way. As always, I'm just a call or text away. -Phillip